Did the Nintendo Switch 2 Really Have a Bad Holiday? We Asked Analysts

Since December, we've been seeing (and writing!) headlines discussing the seeming slowdown of Nintendo Switch 2 income going into the vacation season.

And that communicative feels right, doesn't it? We've seen prices connected everything emergence this year, and expanding economical uncertainty particularly successful the U.S. The Nintendo Switch 2 besides didn't person a immense vacation crippled merchandise (my apologies to Metroid Prime 4) to bolster income done Black Friday and December. It conscionable makes consciousness that vacation income were down.

But there's immoderate nuance to this narrative, and not conscionable due to the fact that truthful galore radical look to beryllium taking this arsenic a motion of doom for the Nintendo Switch 2. So I kicked disconnected the caller twelvemonth by bugging each the analysts I knew for immoderate further discourse connected Nintendo Switch 2's vacation sales: if they were down, wherefore they were down if so, and what it each means for the Switch 2's future.

Did the Nintendo Switch 2 really person a atrocious holiday?

Nah.

Were income slower than they were earlier successful the year? Sure. But that was neither shocking nor concerning to immoderate expert I spoke to.

Manu Rosier, manager of marketplace quality astatine Newzoo, described the Nintendo Switch 2's income frankincense acold arsenic having a beardown archetypal surge of adoption, followed by "normalization." “There are signs of a Q4 normalization versus the motorboat window, reflecting a displacement from launch-driven request (scarcity, bundles, pent-up interest) to a much typical, steady-state request mix," helium said. This inclination was echoed crossed the globe, with Rosier and respective of the different analysts I spoke to each confirming thing astir akin going connected successful their respective tracked regions crossed the U.S., UK, and Europe.

Yes, determination was a driblet disconnected successful income implicit the holidays from the archetypal motorboat surge. As Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern prof and writer of SuperJoost Playlist explains, "The instrumentality is much costly than its predecessors, for one, and went into the vacation play without a wide blockbuster rubric to incentivize audiences. Don’t get maine wrong, Metroid Prime 4: Beyond is good worthy your time, but it lacks the cache held by Mario and Zelda titles. More so, everyone who was going to bargain a Switch 2 astatine motorboat has had a accidental to bash so, particularly since Nintendo had been stocking its caller console for months anterior to its merchandise successful anticipation of tariff-related volatility and imaginable proviso concatenation issues.”

But arsenic each azygous expert I spoke to besides said, this was highly expected and normal, and not truly an indicator of thing particularly concerning. For instance, Circana's yearly study connected the U.S. games marketplace had the Nintendo Switch 2 arsenic the best-selling console of the twelvemonth successful some portion and dollar sales. It sold 4.4 cardinal units full for 2025 successful the U.S., 94% higher than the Nintendo Switch 1 astatine the aforesaid constituent successful its beingness cycle.

It is worthy noting, of course, that the Nintendo Switch 1 launched successful March successful its merchandise year, portion the Switch 2 dropped successful June. This means that the examination constituent here, 7 months into each console's beingness cycle, includes the vacation play for the Switch 2, but not the archetypal Switch. And it's existent that reporting suggests Switch 2 vacation income underperformed Switch 1 vacation income successful immoderate markets, particularly the UK and parts of the U.S. So it's imaginable successful the coming months we spot that quality shrink.

Or, possibly not! The Switch 2 has 1 heck of a lead, and there's a bully crushed for it: supply. "Switch 2 income [in 2025] were expected to beryllium much front-loaded than different consoles historically owed to the beardown complaint of proviso aboriginal on," says Mat Piscatella, elder manager astatine Circana. "Which, of course, is however the Switch 2 has been capable to acceptable the grounds arsenic the US market's fastest selling console ever implicit the archetypal 6 months successful market. You can't merchantability units that don't exist, etc etc."

Switches 'Round the World

Additionally, the Switch 2's vacation wasn't connected the slower broadside everywhere. In Asia, Niko Partners manager of probe and insights Daniel Ahmad says the Switch 2 had a bully holiday. "In Japan, income of the Switch 2 during the vacation play were successful enactment with the Switch 1," helium says. "Nintendo’s enlargement successful Southeast Asia is besides paying off, with an authoritative motorboat successful the portion earlier this twelvemonth helping thrust income growth. While determination is nary authoritative merchandise successful China, request for grey marketplace imports is high."

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, backs this up too. "In the lawsuit of the Japanese marketplace successful particular, the numbers are precise clear: Switch 2 sold similar blistery cakes implicit the holidays."

One crushed for that is supply. The Switch 2's archetypal income occurrence successful the U.S. tin beryllium attributed partially to Nintendo ensuring determination was an ample proviso astatine launch, which besides resulted successful U.S. full income being much heavy frontloaded than they would person otherwise. But the console has been hard to travel by successful Japan, Toto says. That was existent adjacent implicit the vacation erstwhile proviso improved, and helium suspects the Japan income would person been adjacent higher if determination had been capable Switch 2s to spell around.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games manufacture expert and researcher astatine Ampere Analysis, offered an in-depth instrumentality arsenic to wherefore the Switch 2 is successful the presumption it's successful close now. For one, the marketplace conditions are antithetic than they were erstwhile the Switch 1 came out. Not lone is determination much banal and less monolithic gamers arsenic the different analysts mentioned, but the Switch 2 is besides a "known quantity."

"When the archetypal Switch launched it followed a failing Wii U procreation - determination was a batch of involvement but hype and momentum built up successful the tally up to the vacation income astatine the extremity of 2017," Harding-Rolls says. "This clip astir astatine the Switch 2 motorboat request was predictably precocious due to the fact that of the occurrence of the Switch. Following a grounds launch, it’s not astonishing that Switch 2 income person not been capable to support the aforesaid monolithic income pb connected the archetypal Switch. For the record, Switch 2 shipments successful 2025 should outperform the archetypal Switch successful 2017 and implicit a shorter play of time.

"...Then determination is the full macroeconomic situation, little disposable income and higher priced hardware. This whitethorn beryllium softening request to an grade particularly arsenic tons of caller games are inactive disposable connected the archetypal Switch."

Put each together, it sounds similar there's a batch little origin for alarm(o) than immoderate were making Switch 2 income retired to be.

The Switch successful Twenty-Six

But what astir the future?

Harding-Rolls continues: "I’m expecting Switch 2 exclusives to go much plentiful successful 2026 truthful this volition thrust upgrades for those sitting connected the fence. Overall, Switch 2 games look beauteous beardown successful 2026 truthful I stay rather bullish connected the show of the level this year. Longer-term I don’t expect Switch 2 to outperform the archetypal Switch arsenic determination were peculiar conditions - chiefly the pandemic - which supercharged request for Switch aboriginal successful the rhythm and elongated it to an extent."

Everyone other agrees 2026 volition beryllium a bully twelvemonth for Switch 2, though with immoderate asterisks related to the broader planetary market. Toto thinks for the existent fiscal twelvemonth ending March 30, Nintendo volition beryllium person to 20 cardinal units sold than their ain forecast of 15 million, contingent connected them gathering a much awesome crippled line-up. Ahmad predicts that the Switch 2 volition merchantability much than 50 cardinal units by the extremity of 2027, which would beryllium a akin magnitude to the Switch 1 implicit the aforesaid clip frame. He's predicting a terms hike, though, specifically a tariff-related one: "Tariffs were already squeezing margins past year, constituent costs are expanding rapidly, and we wouldn’t beryllium amazed if Nintendo passes those costs connected to consumers successful 1 mode oregon another."

Van Dreunen doesn't deliberation we'll spot component-related terms changes that would discourage sales, saying that Nintendo has already priced those successful and that helium expects income successful Japan particularly to stay beardown acknowledgment to determination discounts and a dense absorption connected the home market. "If it looks similar Nintendo is selling less consoles successful the US, you tin look to the existent medication for an explanation."

Memory Goes Boom

But hardware pricing is simply a beauteous large sticking constituent for James McWhirter, elder expert astatine Omdia. He provided a reasonably elaborate breakdown of what helium thinks is coming not conscionable for the Switch 2, but for the full console market, insofar arsenic hardware pricing increases could yet terms consumers retired of caller purchases.

McWhirter thinks that the large communicative for each console hardware this twelvemonth volition beryllium the effect that request for AI infrastructure is going to person connected pricing. In his estimation, astir six months ago, RAM successful a basal PS5 accounted for astatine slightest a 5th of the measure of materials. But by the extremity of 2025, that outgo volition person risen by astatine slightest 50%.

"Suppliers evidently person the precocious manus with immoderate caller negotiations, truthful it’s lone a substance of clip until Nintendo – and Sony and Microsoft – tally done their inventory of representation and renegotiate astatine higher prices," helium says. "Any emergence successful the outgo of console hardware volition beryllium passed connected to consumers via aggregate means: directly, oregon via a premix of accrued software, services, peripherals pricing.

"But this comes astatine a tricky clip for consoles – we are of people simultaneously seeing the spending powerfulness of middle-income households declining. This leaves Nintendo much exposed arsenic they are keen connected transitioning their Switch assemblage onto Switch 2 arsenic rapidly arsenic possible, with nary much cross-gen releases connected the horizon."

It's not conscionable hardware that's impacted, helium adds. He expects the "memory roar cycle" to interaction Switch 2 bundle specifically soon, owed to carnal games shipping connected NAND memory. "The rising outgo of NAND representation places upward unit connected the outgo of Switch 2 Game Cards. Switch 2, similar its predecessor, is inactive a physical-first platform. When including bundled software, Omdia estimates 57% of Switch 2 games sold successful 2025 were astatine retail."

What astir Game Key-Cards, you say? Sure, that would help, but they're controversial…and whitethorn not beryllium capable anyway.

"The upward unit connected NAND representation prices mean Game Key-Cards volition beryllium present to enactment - adjacent Nintendo has begun experimenting with them starting with March 2026's Pokémon Pokopia. A steadfast precocious suggested Nintendo is introducing smaller capableness Game Cards, but the outgo savings they supply whitethorn beryllium yet wiped retired successful future.

McWhirter expects that each of this volition apt interaction the "middle market" of gaming, radical who acquisition consoles sometime aft their archetypal motorboat roar oregon wide non-enthusiast gamers, whitethorn not beryllium purchasing consoles successful the aforesaid measurement that they person successful caller history. These are the radical that pushed the Switch 1 to planetary sell-through of 151 cardinal by the extremity of past year, but he's not truthful definite they're going to amusement up for the Switch 2, particularly if it gets much expensive. He recalls the Nintendo 3DS, which had highly frontloaded income (17% of systems were sold successful the archetypal twelvemonth connected the market) compared to the Nintendo Switch 1 (9% successful the archetypal year). A akin script could hap again.

There are things Nintendo could bash to stave that off. Switch 2 hardware bundles implicit the vacation providing a "soft" discount would assistance propulsion sales. Regional discounts extended beyond conscionable Japan would besides astir apt work. He besides posits a aboriginal docked-only Switch 2 Lite that would assistance trim constituent costs and walk that savings connected to consumers.

What does each this mean? It sounds like, arsenic has been reported, 2025 was wide a fantastic motorboat twelvemonth for the Switch 2, and that vigor volition apt proceed for immoderate clip to come. But determination are a fig of hurdles the console needs to flooded successful the adjacent fewer years successful bid to support that occurrence long-term. Some of them are evident and manageable by Nintendo now: does it person a beardown 2026 and 2027 crippled line-up, oregon not? But others, specified arsenic tariffs and constituent costs, are harder to foretell and volition necessitate deft handling connected the portion of the hardware shaper successful bid to thrust the Switch 2 procreation to a comparable level of occurrence arsenic its predecessors had.

Rebekah Valentine is simply a elder newsman for IGN. Got a communicative tip? Send it to [email protected].