'I Want to Know What Sort of Odds I Am Trying to Beat When I Am Grinding a Game' — 150 Hours and Over 3,000 Boss Kills Later, a Superfan Has Worked Out Borderlands 4's Disappointingly Low Drop Rate

If you’re large into Borderlands 4, you’ll beryllium wondering astir its driblet rate. The looter shooter is, erstwhile it comes to the endgame, each astir getting the close items for the close physique truthful those harm numbers support connected going up. But what are the existent chances of getting a legendary driblet from a brag successful Borderlands 4?

Developer Gearbox keeps the driblet complaint hidden from players, arsenic it and truthful galore different developers bash erstwhile it comes to games similar this. It wants the grind to support players going for months, adjacent years connected end, aft all. But the hardcore Borderlands assemblage really wants to cognize however things enactment nether the hood. And so, you extremity up with superfans similar Siphonicfir, who are blessed to walk hundreds of hours sidesplitting thousands of bosses to find out.

I archetypal came crossed Siphonicfir's enactment connected the Borderlands subreddit, wherever they had posted a spreadsheet detailing the information thrown up by the loot dropped by implicit 3,000 brag kills. It’s a truly adjuvant portion of work, and it's been well-received by the community, but I was struck by Siphonicfir’s top-line analysis: the dedicated driblet complaint for immoderate idiosyncratic point is astir 5%.

Siphonicfir's Borderlands 4 driblet complaint data. Image credit: Siphonicfir / reddit.

Just 5%! Surely that can’t beryllium right. That feels worse than the driblet complaint successful erstwhile Borderlands games I’ve played. Perhaps there’s a flaw successful Siphonicfir’s work? A bug successful the system, maybe? I thought it champion to person a chat to find out. “Data investigation and stats are conscionable a idiosyncratic interest, though I would perfectly emotion to find enactment successful that field,” they told me. “I person a passionateness for it and I would similar to deliberation I person a knack for it.”

Before we get into the Q&A, below, let’s get immoderate housekeeping retired the way. All Siphonicfir’s kills were done connected the Ultimate Vault Hunter Mode 5 trouble (currently the hardest successful the game), arsenic Vex. The drops were tracked from the infinitesimal Siphonicfir unlocked UVHM5 to bounds sampling errors.

Weekly Encore Bosses are excluded from the full since they person dramatically antithetic driblet rates that would skew the wide information set. Class Bosses are bosses that person people mods arsenic dedicated drops (Siphonicfir surely has thoughts connected people mods, much connected that below!). Multi Bosses are encounters with aggregate named enemies that each person a emblematic driblet chance. And Normal Bosses are each brag that didn't autumn into the different 2 categories.

Read connected if you fancy getting into the weeds connected however Borderlands 4 driblet rates really work, based connected idiosyncratic who’s enactment A LOT of effort into uncovering out. I anticipation that if you’re into the game, oregon looter shooters successful general, you’ll find thing insightful here. I surely did! And acknowledgment to Siphonicfir for their time.

IGN: What drove you to bash this successful the archetypal place?

Siphonicfir: I was driven to bash this by a tendency to cognize what is really going connected successful looter games. I privation to cognize what benignant of likelihood I americium trying to bushed erstwhile I americium grinding a game. Unfortunately the driblet rates successful this benignant of crippled are often not communicated to the subordinate successful immoderate way, truthful the lone mode to truly cognize is to cod the information myself. It besides makes the grind much enjoyable since I americium moving towards the overarching extremity of clarity. Even erstwhile I don’t get the point I'm technically farming for, each tally is inactive different information constituent towards the truth.

IGN: How overmuch clip person you spent doing this?

Siphonicfir: In Borderlands 4 I would accidental I spent astir 150 hours collecting this data. But I person done it for different games successful the past specified arsenic Diablo 4 and Destiny 2. In full I would accidental I person spent astir 400 hours collecting and organizing driblet complaint information for these games.

IGN: How galore brag kills successful full went into this?

Siphonicfir: The spreadsheet featured successful the station was a compilation of 3,035 kills worthy of data. Technically 3,635 if you number the multi bosses arsenic 3 kills each since they are treated arsenic 3 idiosyncratic bosses. I person since recorded much information portion playing with my friends, but that information isn’t represented successful the post.

IGN: How did you really loot everything?

Siphonicfir: To really loot everything and grounds the data, I would person the notes app unfastened connected my phone. After each kill, either during the boss's decease animation oregon during the signifier portal animation, I would adhd 1 tally to the full kills of that boss. I would prime up each legendary during this process, past aft the farming league was implicit I would grounds however galore of each legendary I received during that session. Then to make the post, I created a spreadsheet and compiled each the information from my notes app into sheets to tally the indispensable calculations to nutrient the driblet rates.

IGN: In your conclusions, you accidental the driblet complaint should beryllium doubled. Why is 10% the saccharine spot?

Siphonicfir: I deliberation 10% is the saccharine spot for dedicated items for 2 reasons. One crushed is precedent, arsenic that was the driblet complaint successful Borderlands 2. I deliberation that crippled is wide regarded arsenic the champion crippled successful the franchise, and I americium astir definite the assemblage thinks it was the champion crippled for farming. 10% created a cleanable equilibrium wherever a driblet ever feels special, but you ne'er spell excessively agelong without one.

The nerdier mathematics answer, and my superior crushed to propulsion for the change, is the severity of outliers. For illustration successful my information the longest acold streak was erstwhile I farmed Fractis. It took 96 runs to get a azygous UAV grenade to drop. The likelihood of not getting the point 96 consecutive times astatine a 5% driblet complaint are astir 1 successful 137. In stark contrast, astatine a 10% driblet chance, the likelihood of going acold for 96 trials successful a enactment are conscionable 1 successful 24,703. Going from 5% to 10% isn’t conscionable doubling the chance, it's reducing the worst imaginable outlier outcomes by a origin of 180. Those outcomes marque radical springiness up oregon discontinue owed to vexation and should beryllium constricted arsenic overmuch arsenic possible. An summation to 10% would marque a satellite of quality successful limiting the astir egregious outlier scenarios.

IGN: How bash you consciousness astir people mods?

Siphonicfir: I powerfully dislike the mode people mods driblet successful Borderlands 4. I deliberation it is highly frustrating that determination is nary weighting towards the vault huntsman you are playing. As I mentioned successful the post, if each classes driblet equally, past 3 quarters of your people mods volition beryllium for different classes. I recognize Gearbox wants people mods for different classes to driblet to promote you to play those different classes oregon conscionable truthful you tin stock the loot with your friends who play those classes, but I deliberation the existent strategy is extreme. I suggested successful the station weighting the drops towards your people to immoderate degree. I deliberation arsenic debased arsenic 40% for your people and 20% for each different people would beryllium fine, but I would similar 70% oregon higher for your people and 10% for the others. For notation it presently seems to beryllium 25% crossed the board.

IGN: Did thing successful your information astonishment you?

Siphonicfir: I was peculiarly amazed by 2 bosses successful my data, the Rippa Roadbirds and Vile Ted & The Experiments. I really created the class of “Multi Bosses” due to the fact that their numbers were truthful retired of the ordinary. These bosses are collections of 3 named enemies, and based connected my investigating the crippled treats each idiosyncratic force arsenic a brag with the emblematic loot drops. So each tally of these encounters are adjacent to 3 brag kills, efficaciously tripling the ratio of these sources.

I was besides amazed by conscionable however debased the driblet complaint is. Very aboriginal connected wrong the archetypal week I had heard assemblage speculation that the driblet complaint was betwixt 1/10 and 1/15 from creators specified arsenic Joltzdude139, truthful I was rather amazed and frankly disappointed erstwhile it turned retired to beryllium conscionable 1/20 (5%).

IGN: You accidental you person galore much thoughts connected the driblet rates and RNG. What are they?

Siphonicfir: I bash person galore much thoughts, honestly much than adjacent this. I consciousness similar I could constitute pages connected this taxable but I volition summarize champion I can.

I fundamentally disagree with the plan doctrine of galore of these games successful the consciousness that I deliberation genuinely cleanable cogwheel should beryllium obtainable successful a imaginable magnitude of time. And the phrasing determination is important due to the fact that portion cleanable loot is technically imaginable successful Borderlands 4, it isn’t really realistic to obtain. When the archetypal driblet complaint is conscionable 5%, and past you stack the RNG of the modular portion strategy connected apical of that, and past stack the RNG of the licensed parts connected apical of that, you deed a constituent wherever the likelihood compound truthful overmuch that getting a genuinely cleanable point starts to attack oregon adjacent transcend existent beingness lottery odds.

A bully illustration of this was the people mod strategy successful Wonderlands. Those items had a 1 successful billions accidental of dropping with a cleanable roll. Some members of the Borderlands assemblage similar that chase. They ne'er really privation their cleanable point to drop, they privation to pursuit the thought of perfection without ever really achieving it. If they get their drop, past they “have thing to chase” which is simply a mentality I conscionable ne'er understood. Borderlands 4 is designed for those “chase” players, and that is fine. But it isn’t what I privation from Borderlands. I privation to workplace cleanable cogwheel and really usage it. I privation to enactment unneurotic a genuinely cleanable physique and past spell instrumentality connected the hardest situation to enactment it to the test. That said, loot shouldn’t beryllium escaped by immoderate means. I americium consenting to enactment the clip in, but for maine that means a fewer 100 hours, not a fewer 100 days, weeks, oregon adjacent months of playtime. But that mindset seems to beryllium a number opinion, truthful cleanable loot continues to lone beryllium successful theory.

I deliberation a large contributing origin to this deficiency of attainability is the wide lack of statistical literacy. I deliberation astir players and honestly astir radical successful the satellite don’t efficaciously process probabilities and statistic astatine all. Add successful optimism bias, which tends to marque radical overestimate their ain quality to bushed the odds, and abruptly the “chase” players grossly misunderstand however debased the likelihood request to beryllium for them to ne'er get what they want. The devs person to marque the likelihood genuinely absurd due to the fact that likelihood similar 1 successful 5,000 dependable excessively attainable to the laic player, adjacent though those aforesaid players won’t termination immoderate azygous brag much than 500 times, fto unsocial 5,000. Most players conscionable bash not recognize the applicable mathematics and statistic astatine play successful these types of games, and that is contributing to the problems with attainability.

IGN: Is determination immoderate grounds to suggest Gearbox tweaks the driblet rates down the scenes?

Siphonicfir: I person nary grounds that Gearbox tweaked driblet rates down the scenes, successful information my information reflects the opposite. Even my earliest information which was collected successful the archetypal week of the game's lifespan aligns with the wide totals, indicating a accordant driblet complaint passim each my information postulation since release.

IGN: What bash you program to bash now? Are you really finished with Borderlands 4?

Siphonicfir: I americium not truly definite what I volition bash now. I americium really finished with Borderlands 4 astatine slightest from a solo play perspective. I volition inactive beryllium logging connected if my friends inquire maine to play, but I won’t beryllium playing of my ain accord until the crippled receives a important update. I mightiness play the caller Diablo play and commencement tracking information for the caller chaos uniques successful play 10, but I americium a small burnt retired for present truthful it volition beryllium a spot earlier I marque that decision.

IGN: What's your instrumentality connected the crippled overall?

Siphonicfir: Overall I americium torn connected however to consciousness astir Borderlands 4. I deliberation it arguably has the champion run successful the franchise and the archetypal playthrough acquisition from level 1-50 is superb adjacent among different Borderlands games. But this is beauteous intelligibly the weakest endgame offering since the Pre Sequel, particularly erstwhile compared to the anterior games arsenic they are contiguous with each DLC and patches released. I expect that to get addressed implicit time, we cognize determination is astatine slightest 1 raid brag connected the way, but yet I was disappointed that the sixth crippled successful the franchise made the aforesaid mistake of launching with a lackluster endgame AGAIN. I deliberation for much casual fans of the franchise, this is the champion Borderlands yet. But for players similar myself that truly worth that endgame situation and cogwheel grind, I deliberation Borderlands 2, 3, and adjacent Wonderlands were much satisfying for maine personally.

We’ve got plentifulness much connected Borderlands 4. Last week, a Borderlands 4 dataminer unearthed grounds to suggest that 1 of the astir hated characters from Borderlands 3 was chopped and replaced comparatively precocious successful development. 2K Games and Gearbox declined to remark erstwhile contacted by IGN.

And if you are delving into Borderlands 4, don't spell without updated hourly SHiFT codes list. We've besides got a immense interactive representation acceptable to spell and a badass Borderlands 4 planner instrumentality courtesy of our buds astatine Maxroll. Plus cheque retired our adept players' choices for which quality to take (no 1 agreed).

Wesley is Director, News astatine IGN. Find him connected Twitter astatine @wyp100. You tin scope Wesley astatine [email protected] oregon confidentially astatine [email protected].