Mexico’s economy grew 0.7% in Q2, outpacing analysts’ forecasts

The Mexican system grew much than expected successful the 2nd 4th of 2025, expanding 0.7% compared to the erstwhile three-month period, according to preliminary information published by the nationalist statistic bureau INEGI connected Wednesday.

The maturation complaint was 0.3 percent points higher than the 0.4% median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

The GDP summation came aft the Mexican system grew 0.2% connected a sequential ground successful the archetypal 4th of the year, and contracted 0.7% successful the last 4th of 2024.

INEGI besides reported that the system grew 1.2% annually successful seasonally adjusted presumption successful the 2nd 4th of the year. Unadjusted information showed a 0.1% yearly maturation complaint for the three-month play betwixt April and June.

Gabriela Siller, manager of economical investigation astatine Banco Base, said connected X that the INEGI information shows that it is “clear that Mexico is not successful recession.”

“But that doesn’t mean the system is doing well,” she added.

“There is inactive a hazard of recession for Mexico, particularly if the United States begins to strictly enforce tariffs oregon if much sectors are added to sectoral tariffs,” Siller wrote successful a abstracted post.

The work of the preliminary maturation information for the 2nd 4th of 2025 comes 2 days earlier the United States is scheduled to enforce a 30% tariff connected imports from Mexico, abstracted from sectoral tariffs that presently use to steel, aluminum, cars and car parts.

Manufacturing and services thrust sequential maturation successful Q2

INEGI’s information shows that the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, grew 0.8% connected a sequential ground successful the 2nd quarter.

Mexico’s export gross changeable up 10.6% successful June, with manufacturing starring the way

The tertiary, oregon services, assemblage expanded 0.7% compared to the archetypal quarter, portion the superior assemblage contracted 1.3%.

The paper El Financiero reported that the superior assemblage contraction was related to the U.S. prohibition connected livestock imports from Mexico owed to the screwworm risk.

Despite U.S. tariffs, Mexico’s export gross — mostly generated by manufacturing — continued to turn successful the archetypal fractional of 2025, expanding 4.4% annually.

Siller said connected X that exports are “boosting” the Mexican economy.

In yearly seasonally adjusted terms, the superior assemblage grew 4.5% successful the 2nd quarter, portion the tertiary assemblage expanded 1.7%. The secondary assemblage contracted 0.2% annually successful Q2.

IMF raises 2025 forecast for Mexico

Before the work of INEGI’s Q2 maturation data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 forecast for economical maturation successful Mexico to 0.2% from a erstwhile projection of a 0.3% contraction.

Mexico lone large system projected to shrink successful 2025, IMF study shows

The IMF’s updated forecast was included successful its World Economic Outlook Update report, which was published connected Tuesday.

The IMF is predicting a 1.4% maturation complaint successful Mexico successful 2026. That forecast is unchanged from the IMF’s prediction successful April.

A 0.2% maturation complaint successful Mexico successful 2025 would correspond a important slowdown from the 1.5% enlargement recorded successful 2024.

The Mexican system is presently facing important uncertainty arsenic a effect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

The Mexican authorities has been attempting to scope a woody with the Trump medication to stave disconnected the 30% tariff owed to instrumentality effect this Friday. As of Wednesday morning, nary woody had been reached.

With reports from El Financiero and Reuters