What will Los Cabos look like in 10 years?

There is nary extremity successful show for the explosive population growth that has taken Los Cabos from 44,000 residents arsenic precocious arsenic 1990 to implicit 350,000 by 2020. In fact, according to estimated maturation models, the colonisation is projected to astir treble again by 2035. 

That means successful 2035, lone a decennary from now, Los Cabos is poised to beryllium location to betwixt 600,000 and 650,000 residents. Obviously, this benignant of sustained maturation astatine specified a precocious complaint comes with superior infrastructure challenges, immoderate of which — similar postulation and lodging and h2o proviso shortages — are already evident to residents. 

The colonisation arrow for Los Cabos is inactive shooting astir consecutive up, with the colonisation expected to deed 650,000 by 2035.

But assuming colonisation trends continue, and there’s nary crushed to deliberation they won’t — Los Cabos, for example, continues to support an yearly 14-16% maturation rate good supra the nationalist mean — I thought it would beryllium absorbing to instrumentality a peek into the aboriginal and spot what volition beryllium antithetic astir Los Cabos a decennary from now, and what whitethorn inactive beryllium the same.

What is the program for Los Cabos?

The archetypal happening to enactment is that a governmental program is successful spot to negociate this important growth. The archetypal iteration of this appeared successful 1999 nether the rubric “Plan Director de Desarrollo Urbano de San José del Cabo y Cabo San Lucas, B.C.S.” It aimed astatine a liable improvement of tourism infrastructure for the destination. However, by the clip the second edition appeared successful 2013 arsenic “Plan Director de Desarrollo Urbano (PDU 2040),” the absorption had shifted to liable and sustainable residential maturation by the twelvemonth 2040 (hence, the title), with accent connected specified topics arsenic enlargement vision, designated maturation areas, managing lodging and h2o crises and infrastructure upgrades.

A 3rd variation of this program is expected to beryllium completed soon, and yes, determination is simply a participatory nationalist constituent involved. For instance, implicit 40 workshops were held, involving implicit 700 participants, to garner input connected the aboriginal absorption of the Los Cabos municipality for the 2nd update successful 2013. Public input has besides been sought for the 3rd edition, though precisely however overmuch remains uncertain.

If those look similar precise tiny numbers comparative to the colonisation and its needs, they are. But decisions connected the aboriginal of the destination person been made. That they’re already moving guardant is evident successful respective of the upgrades that volition beryllium discussed shortly.

Demographics

So, wherever are the astir 300,000 oregon truthful caller residents moving to Los Cabos implicit the adjacent decennary coming from? Contrary to concerns astir gentrification, a hot-button topic successful Mexico astatine the moment, determination won’t beryllium immoderate wide influx of foreigners, either from the U.S. oregon elsewhere. Currently, determination are conscionable implicit 17,400 overseas residents successful the municipality, representing little than 5% of the full population. About 10,000 much are expected successful the adjacent decade, which sounds similar a lot. However, owed to the wide migration pattern, this volition person nary meaningful effect connected the percent of overseas nationals. Rather, the wide of newcomers volition beryllium overwhelmingly Mexican, nary uncertainty seeking caller jobs and opportunities successful a high-growth region. 

Currently, much than fractional the colonisation of Baja California Sur was calved successful different authorities successful Mexico, and that inclination should proceed with caller arrivals chiefly coming from Guerrero, Sinaloa, Mexico City and Estado de Mexico. Los Cabos, 1 of lone 5 municipalities successful the state, already accounts for a whopping 44% of its full population, and that fig should deed 50% by 2035.

Where are each the caller Los Cabos residents coming from? Overwhelmingly, from wrong Mexico.

Tourism Infrastructure

Tourism successful Los Cabos is being cautiously and expertly managed, with Rodrigo Esponda, managing manager of the Los Cabos Tourism Board, noting that the accent remains connected sustainable maturation that maintains the destination’s comparatively recently acquired patina arsenic a luxury getaway. 

Still, some the fig of edifice rooms and the tourists occupying them could summation importantly implicit the adjacent 10 years owed to accrued connectivity and infrastructure upgrades. Currently, determination are astir 20,0000 disposable rooms for the 4 cardinal tourists who sojourn annually. By 2035, the erstwhile fig volition surely gait upwards based connected announcements for caller resorts, though it’s hard to forecast however much. 

What’s undeniable is that aboriginal maturation is being facilitated by upgrades underway astatine the Los Cabos International Airport, to alteration it to grip up to 40% much volume, including passengers from the caller routes coming from North America, Europe, Central and South America. So, Los Cabos is well-placed to proceed its dependable tourism growth, portion maintaining higher-than-average spending rates.

Traffic and h2o challenges

Traffic, though surely a interest astatine contiguous owed to the lengthy but much-needed infrastructure upgrade to the Fonatur roundabout successful San José del Cabo, which an estimated 60,000-plus vehicles usage daily, is expected to accommodate the expected growth. Not lone volition a 3rd artery beryllium built betwixt Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, called the Eje Interurbano (Interurban Axis), to assistance divert overflow from Federal Highway 1 and the toll road, but wide transit improvements are besides successful the works, including the anticipation of electric autobus service. 

These improvements should marque postulation betwixt the cape cities travel overmuch smoother, though the residential sprawl of overtaxed aboveground streets is apt to stay a persistent irritant to anyone who wants to spell determination successful a hurry.

The astir concerning issue, meanwhile, is apt to beryllium h2o management. Currently, for example, Los Cabos is moving astatine a shortage of 600 liters per second. 

Los Cabos is successful the midst of a h2o crisis, 1 that lone looks to beryllium getting worse successful the coming decade.

Yes, reinforcements are connected the way, including the opening of a 2nd desalination works successful Cabo San Lucas by 2026, positive a fewer privately owned edifice and residential desalination projects by 2027. But request (see the graph above, which is based connected blimpish estimates comparative to rising colonisation figures and accepted usage) is expected to summation importantly successful the coming decade.

Housing concerns

Another country of interest implicit the adjacent decennary volition beryllium housing. As I referenced successful my caller nonfiction connected wealth disparity successful Los Cabos, determination is simply a dearth of affordable lodging successful Los Cabos, either homes oregon rental units. So if it’s atrocious now, what’s going to hap with up to 300,000 much residents moving successful by 2035?

The premier coastal tracts volition proceed to beryllium reserved for high-end existent property development, with the East Cape of Los Cabos a apt contested spot betwixt long-time residents trying to combat disconnected exploitative maturation and biology degradation, and edifice and residential speculators licking their chops implicit however overmuch pristine onshore remains. Four Seasons kick-started the luxury unreserved of the East Cape successful 2019 with its awesome Costa Palmas edifice and residences. Aman’s Amanvari is coming soon, and high-end hospitality brands Delano and Raffles person announced the opening of East Cape resorts and residences by 2029.

Those residences, however, are for the privileged few. For the many, Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo tin expect much sprawl into outlying areas, similar the former’s Leonardo Gastelum colonia oregon El Tezal. Housing initiatives, including those locally endorsed by President Sheinbaum, person mostly been stymied owed to the trouble of acquiring tracts of onshore astatine affordable prices. More initiatives volition surely beryllium introduced, but the underlying contented remains.

What other could change?

These, of course, are lone immoderate of the much contiguous concerns. There are others, too. What volition a rapidly expanding colonisation mean for farm-to-table nutrient supply, oregon for the environment, including the spectacular earthy quality and astonishing flora and fauna that person made Los Cabos specified an charismatic destination successful the archetypal place? The answers to these questions stay to beryllium seen. Only 1 happening tin beryllium said with certainty: the adjacent 10 years successful Los Cabos volition beryllium interesting, to accidental the least. 

Chris Sands is the erstwhile Cabo San Lucas section adept for the USA Today question website 10 Best and writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos question guidebook. He’s besides a contributor to galore websites and publications, including Tasting Table, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise, Cabo Living and Mexico News Daily.